Zweitstimme.org
A forecasting project for German Federal Elections
Who will lead the next German government, how will parliamentary majorities form under the reformed electoral system, and which parties and candidates will prevail in districts across the country? While pre-election polls dominate public debate, they often struggle to quantify uncertainty, explain coalition prospects, or predict district-level outcomes—especially in a complex multiparty system like Germany’s. Scientific election forecasting offers a transparent and evidence-based alternative, combining insights from political science, survey research, and statistics. Building on the successful Zweitstimme forecasts for the 2017 and 2021 federal elections, this project advances election forecasting beyond party vote shares to address the questions that matter most to voters, media, and political actors.
Focusing on the 2025 Bundestag election, the project develops a holistic forecasting framework that integrates dynamic models, original survey data, and new methods for predicting government formation, district outcomes, and parliamentary majorities under the new electoral law. It combines nationwide and district-level citizen surveys with elite forecasts from candidates and journalists, creating an unprecedented open scientific database. Beyond prediction, the project also studies how election forecasts affect political knowledge, attitudes, behavior, and media reporting. All results will be communicated to the public in real time through major media partnerships and the zweitstimme.org platform, with a strong emphasis on transparency, uncertainty, and clear visualization.